BLOCKCHAIN Economy

A Conversation with Gemini

What is the economic reality of blockchain write only databases or ledgers.

Show thinking

Okay, let’s break down the economic reality of blockchain-based databases or ledgers, focusing on their characteristic as largely “append-only” (data is added, but extremely difficult to modify or delete once confirmed).

The economic reality is complex and highly dependent on the specific use case, the type of blockchain (public vs. private/consortium), and comparison to traditional database solutions. Here’s a breakdown:

  • 1. High Costs (Often Higher than Traditional Databases):
  • Development & Implementation: Building and integrating blockchain solutions requires specialized expertise, which is often expensive and less common than traditional database skills. Setting up nodes, smart contracts, and ensuring security is complex.  
  • Transaction Costs (Gas Fees): Particularly on public blockchains (like Ethereum), every transaction (writing data) requires a fee paid to network validators/miners. These fees can fluctuate wildly and become prohibitively expensive, especially for high-volume applications.  
  • Energy Consumption: Proof-of-Work (PoW) blockchains (like Bitcoin, though Ethereum has moved away) are notoriously energy-intensive, leading to high operational costs and environmental concerns. Proof-of-Stake (PoS) and other consensus mechanisms are more efficient but still require infrastructure and incentives.  
  • Storage Costs: Every node in the network typically stores a copy (or at least the headers) of the entire ledger. As the ledger grows, storage requirements increase across the network, although solutions like sharding aim to mitigate this.  
  • Scalability Limitations & Costs: Many blockchains face limitations in transaction throughput (transactions per second). Scaling solutions (like Layer 2 networks) add complexity and potential additional costs or trust assumptions.  
  • 2. Economic Benefits (The Value Proposition – Where Costs Might Be Justified):
  • Trust & Transparency: In scenarios involving multiple parties who don’t fully trust each other (e.g., supply chain, consortiums, international trade), the shared, immutable, and transparent nature of the ledger can reduce the need for costly intermediaries, audits, and reconciliation processes. This disintermediation is a key potential economic benefit.  
  • Immutability & Security: The high cost and difficulty of altering past records provide strong data integrity. This is valuable for applications where tamper-proofing is critical (e.g., land registries, intellectual property, voting systems – though practical implementations vary). This reduces risks associated with data manipulation or fraud.
  • Automation via Smart Contracts: Smart contracts can automate agreements and processes based on ledger data (e.g., automatic payment release upon verified delivery). This can reduce administrative overhead and speed up execution, potentially lowering costs.  
  • Resilience & Availability (Decentralization): A truly decentralized network has no single point of failure, potentially offering higher uptime and censorship resistance compared to centralized databases (though many “enterprise blockchains” are not fully decentralized).  
  • 3. The Crucial Question: Is Blockchain Economically Viable for a Specific Use Case?
  • Comparison to Alternatives: For many applications, a traditional, centralized database (SQL, NoSQL) managed by a trusted entity is far cheaper, faster, more scalable, and easier to manage. The key economic question is whether the unique benefits of blockchain (trustlessness, transparency, immutability) outweigh its significant costs and complexities for that specific problem.
  • Problem Fit: Blockchain makes the most economic sense when:
  • Multiple, mutually distrusting parties need to share and agree on data.
  • Immutability and auditability are paramount.
  • Disintermediation offers significant cost savings or efficiency gains.   A degree of decentralization is required for resilience or censorship resistance.
  • Private/Permissioned vs. Public Blockchains:
  • Public: Higher potential for true decentralization and censorship resistance, but often higher transaction costs (gas fees), lower throughput, and less control. Economic model often relies on native tokens.
  • Private/Permissioned: Controlled by a single entity or consortium. Generally faster, cheaper transactions (no public gas fees), and higher privacy, but sacrifices decentralization and potentially some trust benefits. Costs are shared among participants or borne by the managing entity. Often closer to a shared, immutable database than a truly decentralized system.
  • 4. Economic Reality Check:
  • Hype vs. Reality: Many proposed blockchain use cases haven’t proven economically superior to existing solutions after the initial hype.
  • Adoption: While adoption is growing in specific niches (DeFi, supply chain pilots, cross-border payments, NFTs), it’s far from mainstream for general database needs.
  • Immutability as a Drawback: The inability to easily change or delete data can be an economic liability, especially concerning errors, updates, or regulations like GDPR’s “right to be forgotten.” Workarounds exist but add complexity and cost.
  • In Conclusion:
    • The economic reality of blockchain ledgers is that they are often more expensive, slower, and more complex than traditional databases. Their economic viability hinges entirely on whether the specific problem requires the unique benefits of decentralization, transparency, immutability, and trust reduction among multiple parties, and whether these benefits provide value that significantly outweighs the higher costs and inherent limitations compared to centralized alternatives. For many standard data storage and retrieval tasks, traditional databases remain the far more economical choice

We Keep Talking About It, When Will We Solve For Identity in the Digital Space

This morning I read an article in the Financial Times The real story behind push payments fraud.  What is disturbing, the acceptance of fraud and the focus of bankers on adding fees (like Interchange) to help cover the cost of fraud.  This article speaks to Push Payments and how liability shifts from the merchant back to the Issuer and ultimately the consumer.  It makes reference to Pull Payments and the use of debit cards where the fraud liability, unless online, is the merchants’.

To address card payment fraud in the physical world the payment schemes developed EMV.  In the digital or eCommerce realm everyone accepted allowing the merchants to not attempt to authenticate the cardholder and simply ask the consumer to provide openly available data {cardholder name, PAN the account number, expiry date, and address details}; if they, the merchant, would accept liability for any fraud.

As the world moves to embrace “Faster Payments” and Real-Time Gross Settlement ‘RTGS’, instead of focusing on assuring the identity of the sender and the recipient; we assume fraud will occur.

Why not focus on solving the problem?  Solving for Digital Identity solves for Card Not Present fraud, RTGS fraud, Faster Payment fraud, and so much more.

 

 

The Future of EMVCo Next Gen

Back in 2011, when I was part of American Express, I was part of the team responsible for our involvement in the work of EMVCo.  At this stage in the work of EMV the discussion had turned to the confusion the multiple contactless kernels was creating in the market and more importantly the challenges we would face as the external threats increased demanding that the length of the RSA keys increase accordingly.  Ultimately we collectively determined the best course of action was to begin the work on what began know as “Next Gen”.  From the beginning it was well understood the migration from where we are today to the “Next Gen” technology solution, both in the card and on the terminal, would be complex and expensive.  In September of 2014 an initial specification was released and my understanding is that a draft has been issued to subscribers and Associates for review and feedback.

This post stems from a conversation with a good friend, he asked me if I thought there was still relevance to what is now being called 2nd Gen.  In that discussion we reviewed the genesis of the work, the baseline for EMV and the unfortunately reality of how contactless was implemented.  Our conversation then turned to the question of what makes the most sense live with what we have today or suffer the expense of the migration to a new solution.

Thinking back to the original reason for “Next Gen” was to consolidate the 7 contactless kernels into one common kernel and replacement  RSA with what was called XDA or Elliptic Curves.  When I think about these two requirements one can only wonder why in the most recent EMVCo Stated EMV® 2nd Generation there is no  reference to enhanced cryptography.  In fact the only thing the document describes is the creation of one unique kernel.

Referring back to the September 2014 Net Gen Specification there is clear reference to enhanced security with specific call out of “an elliptic curve Diffie-Hellman key establishment protocol with blinding applied by the card”.  I then remember hearing about issues with Elliptic Curves and wonder why there is no reference to enhanced cryptograph in this most recent EMVCo document.

Back to the question raised in our conversation.

Do I see value in the world investing in the migration to 2nd Generation?

The answer is I am not sure anymore. 

When EMV started we had four agreed requirements, summarized on this slide I initially created back in 1994.  Offline Authorization, in other words, the issuer’s ability to securely approve a transaction without requiring the terminal to request an expensive online authorization request was the reason Offline Authentication was part of the original design of EMV.

  • If the value of offline authentication, given the ubiquity of wired and wireless telecommunications networks, is deprecated.
  • If  the performance efficiencies, original seen in Elliptic Curves, is no longer as significant, given the increased threats and vulnerability.

Then why make the investment in changing the software in both the card and the terminal to support XDA?

Next

  • If most if not all terminal manufacturers have addressed the complexity of the multi-kernel configurations, compounded by the existence of various unique national contactless kernels.

Then why demand the investment in supporting a complex migration from multiple kernels to a single EMVCo Licensed kernel?

Finally

The threat of quantum cryptograph suggests that most if not all asymmetric cryptographic algorithms commercially available will be broken.

It does beg the question.

What is the business case for driving the world into a expensive, long and complicated migration?

What we created in 1994, and EMVCo has maintained, is a very effective Online Authentication mechanism, the ARQC.  A mechanism based on symmetric cryptography which, as far as I can tell, will remain under the control of the Issuer and is not, as of yet, threatened by quantum computing.

I look forward to your feedback.

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMV is truly becoming the base for secure Card Authentication and Cardholder Verification

INCREASING EMV CARD AND TERMINAL DEPLOYMENTS CONFIRM EMV AS GLOBAL PAYMENT STANDARD
06 October 2010: As of 1 September 2010, over one billion EMV®* cards and 15.4 million EMV terminals were active globally. These are the latest EMV deployment figures reported by EMVCo, the EMV standards body collectively owned by American Express, JCB, MasterCard and Visa.

http://www.emvco.com/download_agreement.aspx?id=561