Part 1 of 7 in a series continuing The Asymmetry — Seen From Their Side, which asks whether the rules we demand from an adversary are rules we are willing to apply to ourselves and our allies.
In 1994, Ukraine accepted security assurances as it committed to relinquishing the Soviet nuclear weapons on its soil; the final warheads left in 1996. Russia later seized Crimea and invaded on a full scale in 2022. Russia retains an estimated 4,400 military nuclear warheads, while Ukraine has none. This does not prove a Ukrainian arsenal would have prevented war. It does show why assurances can look inadequate after they are broken. [4][13]
The asymmetry: Ukraine gave up the weapons; one of the powers that promised to respect its borders retained its arsenal and invaded.
Sources
[4] SIPRI, Yearbook 2026 nuclear forces summary, 8 June 2026
[13] Arms Control Association, Ukraine assurances and June 1996 last warhead transfer
Full exhibits and source trail: The Asymmetry — Seen From Their Side.
AI collaboration: Andreae.com/aiwork — working method.