Block Chain. Hype, the future, fiction or a scheme?

A month or so ago I was asked to speak to an assembly of bankers and processors at the Atlanta Federal Reserve on Cryptocurrencies and blockchain.

 Yesterday over a lunch I ended up synthesizing my thoughts into a neat little package that I would like to start sharing.

Those who extoll the virtues of Block Chain  speak of:

  • Immutability – Cryptographers and mathematicians will prove the immutability of the algorithms, at least for now
  • Distributed – as long as there a multiple diverse and competing stakeholders this is great
  • Trustless – I keep asking the same question Who defines the content of the Block or the ledger or the transaction?  Everyone ultimately agrees a body of people and I sit there and say that sounds like a governance model.  Be it a currency, a ledger, a contract two or more must agree to structure format, content and rules.
  • Consensus – Great as long as we never exceed the 51% participation by A party, the model is superb.

I then think about Work and the reward

Be it Proof of Work or Proof of Stake the entities that do the work are intermediaries and will want to be rewarded for their work.

Then one must think about shifting from a solution that rewards someone with a coin to a system that rewards someone with a fee earned.

I then reflect on Bit Coin and its use of Proof of Work

Coins are created by the party who figured out the Nonce, as a reward for solving the cryptographic puzzle.

  • Once they earned 25 Bitcoins
  • Today they earn 12.5 Bitcoins
  • At some point, in the future, the reward will be cut in half and then half again

The challenge

As the chain gets longer the work gets harder

As time moves forward and the number of coins in circulation grows

The reward decreases in notation value. 

Sounds like inflation is built in. 

Real estate, computers and electricity cost money. 

As the work expands the costs increases!

In conclusion

There is inherent Inflation built into the Bit Coin Model.

We simply replace intermediaries with Nodes and Miners.

We require a governance model so we simply change the governor to another.

People will want to be paid for the work they do to build the block or assure consensus of the chain

What is truly revolutionary? 

The math, ok maybe. 

Immutability, it is done today with cryptography, without a block chain.

Multiple copies of the ledger spread around the world.  Yes, as long as we address confidentiality.

We have governance, sure we can always elect a new government

What is so magical?

 

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